The 10 states in the Midwest/Great Lakes region have undergone significant shifts in party control in their State Houses. Following the 2004 election, eight of these 10 states had a Republican Speaker of the House. Today, nine of the 10 states have a Democratic Speaker of the House. The Midwest has been seen as a battleground the last several years for party control and for the Presidential races, but it has also shown dramatic power shifts.

During these last three elections, the Democratic Party has gained seats in ALL 10 states in both the 2006 election and the 2008 election. This has resulted in a net gain of 101 seats for the Democratic Party in this 10-state region since 2004. The most dramatic shift has been in Minnesota where the Democratic Party has gained 20 seats in the last two elections. Illinois and Indiana have changed the least with a shift of four seats each.

This sets up the Democratic Party nicely for the next decade if they are able to maintain their majorities in these nine states and control the reapportionment process in 2011. Control of the legislative agenda for the next decade has already been sealed by the Democratic Party in many of these states before the 2010 election is even over.

This will serve as the second installment of taking a look inside some of the numbers that helped shape this election:

• Senate Republicans were not competitive in any Democratic controlled seats. The closest race in a Democratic controlled seat was SD40 where Vi Simpson won by 23,471 votes or 40%.
• 2 Senate races were decided by less than 10% (9.4% and 9.3%)
• The closest Senate race was decided by 3,909 votes
• 22 House races were decided by less than 3,909 votes
• The closest House race was decided by 114 votes. (HD26 pending)
• 11 House races were decided by less than a 10% winning margin
• 6 House races were decided by less than 500 votes.
• The 10 closest House races were decided by an average of 686 votes or 2.8%
• In the 66 contested House races, Republican candidates received 27,112 more votes than Democratic candidates for a 1.5% difference
• There were 324,609 more ballots cast in 2008 House races compared to 2004 House races for a 15.4% increase
• For the second straight election, neither House Republicans nor House Democrats received a majority of the total votes for all 100 House races
• In 2004, only 1 House candidate in a contested race received more than 20,000 votes. In 2008, 10 House candidates in a contested race received more than 20,000 votes.

Keep checking www.IBRG.biz for updated Election Reports. We have just posted update #4.

This will serve as the first installment of taking a look inside some of the numbers that helped shape this election:

• Senate Republicans were not competitive in any Democratic controlled seats. The closest race in a Democratic controlled seat was SD40, where Vi Simpson won by 23,471 votes, or 40%.
• The closest Senate race was decided by 3,909 votes.
• 22 House races were decided by less than 3,909 votes.
• The closest House race was decided by 114 votes.
• 11 House races were decided by less than a 10% winning margin.
• 6 House races were decided by less than 500 votes.
• The 10 closest House races were decided by an average of 699 votes or 2.8%.
• In the 66 contested House races, Democratic candidates received 3,974 more votes than Republican candidates for a 0.2% difference.

Keep checking www.IBRG.biz for updated Election Reports.  We have just posted update #4.

Now that the results are in, it’s only fair to deliver a grade on how my predictions went: 

Correct Picks:

• Obama would win Indiana.
• Obama would win the White House and win 375 electoral votes to John McCain’s 163. With only North Carolina undecided, the count stands at 349-147.
• 48 out of 49 states were picked correctly with only Missouri being incorrect with one state remaining.
• Governor Daniels would easily win re-election.
• 8 Congressional seats would remain unchanged. (I thought Mike Pence’s and Steve Buyer’s races would be closer, but they’d still win).
• Greg Zoeller and Tony Bennett would narrowly win and be good bellwether races for the night.
• Ed Charbonneau would win in the only competitive Senate seat.
• House Democrats would keep their majority.
• The Indiana House would end up 52-48 Democrat. One seat, HD26, is still undecided but Republican Randy Truitt is up by 20 votes.

 Incorrect Picks (or near misses):

• Congressman Mark Souder would lose. Souder won easily with 55% of the vote.
• Missed the correct winner in two House races (HD26 and HD97).

Overall, the correct picks tallied 183 out of 187 correct (97.9%). Not bad, but the misses sting.

Here is a look at the 10 counties that historically have been accurate bellwethers in predicting a statewide winner. It is also interesting to note that these 10 counties are located in eight of the 10 TV media markets in the state. This accuracy is based on 19 statewide races from 1998 to 2006.

Jay: On average, is only 1.5% off the winning candidate’s percentage received. One of the top House races, district 33, is in Jay County where Bill Davis is fending off a tough competitor.

Brown: Don’t we all wish we were enjoying beautiful Brown County today?

Newton: Another one of the top House races, District 15, covers Newton County where Don Lehe looks to defeat the same candidate for the second straight election.

Warrick: In the Evansville TV market

Wayne: Technically in the Dayton TV market

Henry: Home of the “World’s Largest and Finest High School Gymnasium in the World” (Nice to be able to plug my hometown of New Castle.)

Jennings: In the Louisville TV market.

Howard: Like the country, tough economic times have hit this county.

Ohio: In the Cincinnati TV market.

Parke: Eastern part of Parke County has a competitive House race (HD 44).

As we approach the last Election Day on November 4, here is a list of key numbers and percentages that have greatly influenced this election.

• 91% – Percentage of the national population that rates the economic conditions as “only fair" or “poor,” according to Gallup
• 40% – Key percentage to look for in Indiana is if Obama can win 40% or more of the white vote. If Obama goes north of this number, he likely wins Indiana
• I 30-49 – Independent 30-49 year old middle age voters are critical in deciding who will win Indiana’s eleven electoral votes
• 26 – MINIMUM number of new legislators that will show up for the 2009 Indiana General Assembly. This number is likely to go up following the defeat of incumbents
• 76 – Number of IBRG Endorsed legislative candidates in 2008
• 1 – Number of truly competitive Senate races on IBRG’s radar screen
• 8 – Number of competitive House races IBRG is playing in today
• 13 – House races that are either lean or toss-up
• +2 R / +3 D – This is the likely range for party change in the Indiana House
• 345,582 - Newly registered voters in 2008 alone (8.4% of voters)
• 525,264 – Newly registered voters since 2006 General Election. That means that 12.7% of voters are newly registered since 2006. This is a huge NEW voting block that did not exist two years ago.
• 455,035 – Absentee ballots cast as of last night. This is already 11% of total registered voters (4,135,301 active voters).

Finally, the last number that may matter most to all of us – 4; there are only four days left to vote.

If I were a poker player, I would declare “All In!”  It is in this spirit that I share a few of the thoughts/theories that have been bouncing around in my head over the past seven months:

• Since early May, I have felt that Barack Obama would win Indiana and the White House. There you go, it’s now officially in print forever that I am going against over 40 years of Presidential history in Indiana.
• There are two waves going on in Indiana:  One is the Barack Obama wave and the second is the Mitch Daniels wave. Both have run superb campaigns, taken advantage of massive fundraising efforts, pushed the use of internet campaigning to new heights and are clearly agents of “change.” To me, the bigger question is: “Which wave — Obama or Daniels — will carry the statewide, Congressional and House races across the finish line?”
• First time voters WILL be the determining voter group in several races on the ballot from President down to State Representative. The amount of attention focused on this new group has been considerable, but this group deserves even more discussion than it is receiving.
• The 3 E’s — emotion, enthusiasm and excitement — explain the three points above. To me, the biggest story of this election cycle arguably is what has driven so many people, especially first time voters, to vote.  Campaigns and issues driven by these 3 E’s are hard to measure, hard to stop and attract many new people. This applies to political, corporate or charity campaigns. Remember: Emotion drove millions of people to donate money, clothes and even blood following disasters like Katrina and 9-11, and it is emotion, enthusiasm and excitement that are driving people to vote in this election right now.

I believe a wave of significant importance is now taking place in Indiana and the country. I will save my thoughts on how the Indiana House races will be impacted for a posting closer to the election.