Archive for November 5th, 2008

BREAKING: Reske Holds On to Seat in HD37; Dems Grab 52-48 House Lead

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With all the votes now tallied in HD37, Democrat Scott Reske (Anderson) has retained his seat by defeating Republican Kelly Gaskill.

"After the absentee ballots — many from Anderson — were counted, Reske gained enough votes to put him over the top," said Indiana Chamber political affairs director Michael Davis. "The outcome was pretty much what we thought it would be. We figured it would be close but Reske would win in the end."

This leaves the Indiana House at a 52-48 margin in favor of the Democrats.

Here is the updated IBRG Election Report.

The Art of Prediction

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Now that the results are in, it’s only fair to deliver a grade on how my predictions went: 

Correct Picks:

  • Obama would win Indiana.
  • Obama would win the White House and win 375 electoral votes to John McCain’s 163. With only North Carolina undecided, the count stands at 349-147.
  • 48 out of 49 states were picked correctly with only Missouri being incorrect with one state remaining.
  • Governor Daniels would easily win re-election.
  • 8 Congressional seats would remain unchanged. (I thought Mike Pence’s and Steve Buyer’s races would be closer, but they’d still win).
  • Greg Zoeller and Tony Bennett would narrowly win and be good bellwether races for the night.
  • Ed Charbonneau would win in the only competitive Senate seat.
  • House Democrats would keep their majority.
  • The Indiana House would end up 52-48 Democrat. One seat, HD26, is still undecided but Republican Randy Truitt is up by 20 votes.

 Incorrect Picks (or near misses):

  • Congressman Mark Souder would lose. Souder won easily with 55% of the vote.
  • Missed the correct winner in two House races (HD26 and HD97).

Overall, the correct picks tallied 183 out of 187 correct (97.9%). Not bad, but the misses sting.

Third Parties Crashed

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Third party candidates were hardly Perot-ic in the 2008 general election. Among them, independent Ralph Nader (though technically not in a party this year) garnered the most votes. Somewhat surprising to me, as former GOP Congressman and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr seemed to receive far more media coverage than any of the other candidates. Here are some noteworthy totals (with 97% of precincts reported):

Ralph Nader (Independent): 649,837

Bob Barr (Libertarian Party): 485,400

Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party): 173,202

Cynthia McKinney (Green Party): 141,333

Ron Paul: 19,285

Note: Paul, a Texas Congressman who lost to McCain in the GOP Primary, wasn’t actually running and was only on the ballot in a couple of states (I believe only Louisiana and Montana). Paul actually endorsed Baldwin (a LaPorte native, btw).

Election Report Now Available

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The Indiana Chamber brought you election results throughout the night. While some dedicated staff (and they did a tremendous job collecting and reporting the latest) completed their duties several hours after midnight, the Indiana Business for Responsive Government political action team stayed at it until its comprehensive summary report was on the way to readers at 4:30 a.m.

A few tidbits:

  • Governor Mitch Daniels won 79 of 92 counties, while Barack Obama won only 15 counties in compiling 49.9% of the state vote.
  • The Indiana House stands at 51-47 Democrats, with the two outstanding races likely going to Republicans. Stay tuned for the counting of provisional ballots, which could take up to 10 days.
  • There will be 32 new legislators on Organization Day in a few weeks. That is a result of defeat, retirement, resignation or death since the 2006 election

Again, the full report (with occasional updates in the next few days) is at www.ibrg.biz.

Indiana House Race Updates

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HD31: Republican Tim Harris is down 550 votes to Democrat Joe Pearson. Though there are still votes to be counted, it appears highly unlikely Harris will be able to overcome the deficit.

HD37: Republican Kelly Gaskill remains ahead by 34 votes over Democrat Scott Reske. However, there are still provisional ballots to be counted, and the winner likely won’t be determined tonight.

Seats previously held by Republicans that will become Democratic: HD31 (won by Joe Pearson); HD44 (won by Nancy Michael); HD89 (won by Jon Barnes); HD97 (won by Mary Ann Sullivan)

Seats previously held by Democrats that will become Republican: HD63 (won by Mark Messmer); HD72 (tentatively won by Ed Clere); HD26 (likely won by Randy Truitt); HD37 (likely won by Kelly Gaskill)